Domestic and global markets face a packed schedule this week that could change their direction, from third-quarter earnings at SK hynix and Samsung Electronics to the U.S. FOMC, Big Tech earnings reports and interest-rate decisions in major economies.
Ordinarily, investors could assess each announcement separately. This time, the stakes are higher because the U.S. rate decision, corporate earnings and the investment outlook for the AI industry are intertwined.
For example, if the U.S. Federal Reserve signals another rate increase, rising Treasury yields could weigh on technology stocks. But if Big Tech earnings released the same day confirm increased investment in AI data centers, that could instead be a positive signal for semiconductor-related stocks.
With strong results already known to the market offering no guarantee of a share-price rise, what matters this week is how far reported figures exceed expectations and what companies say about their business outlook.
October 28 (Wednesday) — SK hynix: The outlook after record results
The first event to watch is SK hynix’s third-quarter earnings briefing at 9 a.m. on October 28. The average operating-profit estimate from 10 securities firms is about 76.3 trillion won.
Among the firms, Citi has the highest forecast at about 81.3 trillion won, while DS Investment & Securities projects about 70.1 trillion won. Even as they assess the same semiconductor boom, their earnings estimates differ considerably.
An important consideration is that SK hynix shares have already undergone a sharp correction. With the market already expecting high profits, it is unclear whether results that only slightly beat forecasts would fully restore investor confidence.
The earnings briefing should therefore be watched for whether increased HBM4 supply and rising prices for conventional DRAM and NAND can continue next year, and how much stable demand the company has secured through long-term supply contracts with major customers.
SK hynix has also said it will announce additional shareholder-return measures alongside its third-quarter results, fueling expectations of a special dividend. But a dividend of about 16 trillion won, a figure being discussed in the market, is not yet a confirmed plan. The actual announcement and its scale need to be distinguished from speculation.
October 28 (Wednesday) — Samsung Electro-Mechanics: Demand for components that connect AI chips
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is scheduled to report earnings that afternoon. After second-quarter operating profit rose 107% from a year earlier to 440.4 billion won, attention is focused on whether growth continued in the third quarter.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics supplies MLCCs used in AI servers and electric vehicles, as well as FC-BGA, a high-value semiconductor substrate that connects AI accelerators and server CPUs. That makes it one of the companies that can show whether increased data-center investment is translating into actual component orders.
Last quarter, revenue by business division was approximately 1.6494 trillion won for Components, 771.6 billion won for Package Solutions and 1.0362 trillion won for Optical Solutions. It is important to assess changes in the profitability of MLCCs and high-value semiconductor substrates separately.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics has already said it signed long-term MLCC supply contracts with about 10 major global customers. On this conference call, the key questions are likely to be how quickly those contracted volumes translate into higher sales and what plans the company has to expand production capacity.
Early Thursday, October 29 — U.S. FOMC widely expected to hold rates steady this time
At 3 a.m. on the 9th, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest-rate decision, a key event for global financial markets this week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.
The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in September to 3.75–4.00%, and the prevailing expectation is that it will hold rates steady at its October meeting.
But a rate hold would not necessarily be good news for the stock market. With U.S. inflationary pressures still running high, markets have already priced in a substantial chance of another rate increase in December.
In a Reuters survey of economists published October 20, 94 of 100 respondents expected rates to stay unchanged in October, but all 100 expected a rate increase in December.
More than the decision to hold rates steady, the direction of U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar and the Nasdaq will likely depend on how strongly the Fed chair signals a December increase and whether he believes further tightening will be needed after that.
Early Thursday, October 29 — Microsoft and Alphabet face a test of their AI investments
After the FOMC meeting, Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet will report earnings in succession. Markets will be watching how much of the vast sums the two companies have invested in AI data centers is translating into actual revenue.
Microsoft reported 43% growth in Azure last quarter, while Alphabet’s Google Cloud revenue rose about 82% year over year, underscoring the rapid growth of their cloud businesses.
The challenge is that capital spending is rising just as steeply as revenue. The key question is whether the companies can continue to cover the costs of building data centers and buying AI chips while maintaining profitability.
If cloud growth beats market expectations in these earnings reports and investment plans are expanded through 2027, that could benefit Nvidia, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. But if there are signs that revenue growth is not keeping pace with the burden of investment, the opposite trend could emerge.
Thursday, October 29 — Samsung Electronics to detail its 107 trillion won operating profit
Samsung Electronics will hold a briefing on its final third-quarter results at 10 a.m. on the 29th. On the 8th, it released preliminary figures showing record revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won.
The focus of this announcement should be less on the overall results than on how much profit the semiconductor division actually earned, the expansion of HBM4 supply and how far profitability has improved in the foundry business.
Samsung Electronics has seen its operating profit climb rapidly this year, from 57.2 trillion won in the first quarter to 89.5 trillion won in the second and a preliminary 107.4 trillion won in the third.
But sustaining that pace of growth next year will depend on demand for AI semiconductors and memory prices. That means the 2027 production-capacity and capital-investment plans to be unveiled on this conference call may be a more important yardstick than the current strong results.
October 29 (Thursday) — Hyundai Motor’s sales rose, but what about profitability?
Hyundai Motor will report its third-quarter results that afternoon. Although second-quarter revenue reached a record 49.2153 trillion won, operating profit fell 20.8% year on year to 2.8509 trillion won, making any improvement in profitability a key question.
Hyundai Motor has performed relatively well in the North American market and in hybrid-vehicle sales, but costs including U.S. tariffs, raw-material prices and sales incentives could limit profit growth.
High auto-loan interest rates and vehicle prices in the U.S. are also making new cars harder for consumers to afford, so the conference call should offer a chance to hear management explain how high interest rates are affecting actual sales demand.
Ultimately, what matters in these results is less how much revenue rose than whether higher sales translated into an improved operating profit margin, and whether Hyundai Motor can maintain both price competitiveness and profitability in the U.S. market going forward.
October 29 (Thursday) evening — U.S. GDP and PCE data will put growth and inflation in the spotlight at the same time
At 9:30 p.m. on the 29th, the U.S. will release its preliminary third-quarter economic growth estimate and September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index simultaneously, potentially reshaping the market’s interest-rate outlook after the early-morning FOMC meeting.
In the previous release, U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% from the preceding quarter in the second quarter, while the headline PCE price index rose 3.4% year on year in August and the core PCE index rose 3.0%.
If both growth and inflation exceed expectations, the U.S. economy’s resilience could instead be seen as grounds for further interest-rate hikes. Conversely, if inflation eases while growth holds up, that could be a positive signal for both technology stocks and the bond market.
But if growth falls well short of expectations, concerns about slowing corporate earnings could intensify even if interest-rate pressures ease. Lower inflation alone, therefore, would not justify expecting the stock market to rise.
October 29 (Thursday) evening — ECB: Europe is raising rates again
Following the release of the U.S. economic data, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its interest-rate decision at 10:15 p.m. Having lowered its deposit rate to 2.00% in June last year, the ECB raised it to 2.50% in September this year, shifting back toward tightening.
With geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and rising energy prices adding to inflationary pressures in Europe, the key question is whether the ECB will raise rates again this time or how strongly it will stress the need for future increases.
If European interest rate hikes continue, the euro and European government bond yields could face upward pressure, potentially affecting global bond markets and the dollar’s relative performance.
October 30 (Friday) — Amazon and Intel: Taking the Temperature of Cloud and Semiconductor Markets
Amazon and Intel will hold earnings calls early on the 30th. Although both are affected by the semiconductor and AI industries, the indicators to watch for each company are quite different.
For Amazon, the key issues are the growth rate of its cloud business, AWS, and whether it will expand capital spending on AI data centers. For Intel, what matters is whether it can narrow losses in its foundry business, make its next-generation manufacturing processes competitive and see demand recover in the server and PC markets.
AWS revenue rose about 37% year on year to $42.2 billion in the second quarter. If that cloud growth continues and Amazon maintains its future capital spending plans, it could also strengthen the demand outlook for memory and semiconductor equipment suppliers.
Conversely, if Amazon adjusts its investment plans or the profitability of Intel’s manufacturing business falls short of expectations, shares in related sectors could come under pressure.
October 30 (Friday) — Bank of Japan: Where the Yen Goes Next
The last major event to watch this week is the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) interest rate decision. Japan raised rates in both June and September this year, bringing its policy rate to 1.25%.
A hold is widely expected at the October meeting, but in a Reuters survey of experts conducted in October, 54 of 78 respondents expected the rate to rise to 1.50% this December.
If the Bank of Japan strongly signals further hikes, the yen could strengthen, and the flow of funds borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in overseas assets could change.
If pressure to unwind the so-called yen carry trade rises sharply, volatility could increase not only in Japanese stocks but also in U.S. and South Korean stocks. That makes Governor Ueda’s remarks important.
So what should investors watch in the stock market this week?
The events moving markets this week may seem different, but they all revolve around whether AI investment can continue despite high interest rates, and whether that investment is translating into higher corporate profits—one overarching question.
Even if SK hynix and Samsung Electronics report strong earnings, their share prices could fall if the outlook for the semiconductor industry next year falls short of expectations. Conversely, if the outlook for U.S. interest rates stabilizes and big tech companies expand investment in AI infrastructure, that could benefit technology stocks broadly.
Therefore, this week it will be important to look not just at share-price movements immediately after earnings announcements, but also at the gap between forecasts and actual results, the outlook for future earnings, and changes in interest rates and exchange rates.
